(NASHVILLE, TN) — Well many in the industry are still digesting and reacting to the massive, record yield and production estimates for corn that came out from USDA’s August WASDE report on Tuesday, August 12th, 2025. The numbers, if realized, would be 1.4 billion bushels more than the prior record set in 2023/24. It seems to be further evidence that we potentially have the largest U.S. corn crop in history on our hands this year, despite challenges in various areas of the country.
Craig Turner with StoneX said post report that he is still trying to wrap his head around some of the numbers. He said that “97 million acres and a 188 yield, I mean that kind of yield on that amount of planted acres really is as bearish as a scenario as one could concoct in their imagination, right?” Turner added that “I don’t know how much more bearish the news can get after that number.”
NASS also forecasted record high corn yields in Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin on the August WASDE report.
According to Tyler Schau with AgMarket.net, the corn number was definitely a surprise. “You had to do a double take,” said Schau. “Number one, you know, first I had to do a few pre-report interviews and they asked what everyone was going to be looking for and I said, well, most likely the headline number is going to be yields. And obviously that was a whoa moment. Not only did they come in high, they came in higher than the highest level of any analyst expectations. And a reminder, that a lot of analysts got mocked for coming out with some of those high expectations on yields. So I hate to see the blowback we’re going to see over the next few days on this one.”
Schau also said the production numbers were quite interesting as well. “You glanced and you looked at the production and the math didn’t add up. No one was talking about an increase to acres and we saw about a 1.9 million acre increase, I believe, in corn harvested area over what we saw in the report in July. You take those two alone, you just increase production by a billion bushels. And I think if there’s one more kind of takeaway from today, it’s that we increased production by a billion bushels on the August WASDE and corn was only down 12, 13 cents at the end of the day.”
While the corn number definitely feels bearish, Turner says the soybean balance sheets domestically might be getting a little tight. “On the soybean side, 80.8 million and the 53.6, I want to say in the yield, that was a kind of a shock too,” says Turner. “And you can look at their balance sheets for sub 300 now on the ending stocks. And what’s real interesting about soybeans there is, I mean, just on paper, looking at the balance sheet, you get South American weather issues or if anything positive happens between the United States and China on soybeans, you can have some fireworks.”
Schau also agreed on the soybean numbers saying that “domestically, it’s very tight.” He added that “they went and decreased the soybean acres for harvest, and that more than offset that increase in the yield. They also came in and lowered some of the export numbers for soybeans, which I think until we see some China business, it’s also well warranted. You know, what I think it does for soybeans is, if you look at, I think it’s more important to look at the world numbers when you’re looking at soybeans. And the world ending stocks did come down for the 2025/26 year. They had 126 million metric tons. They lowered that just below 125. So, they pulled it down a million metric tons. Not earth shattering, because we’ve been building that up over the last few years.”
Meantime, prior to the USDA numbers on Tuesday, one boots on the ground tour estimate from last week came in with a sizable yield estimate as well. Professional Ag Marketing hosted the tenth year of their Midwest crop tour, led by Mike Minor. The route, which covered some 2,500 miles across the Midwest, found a national average corn yield of 184.6.
Speaking on Tuesday’s episode of Agriculture of America (AOA) before the report was released from USDA, Minor said it was a tale of the West versus the East. “So consistency was very, very good,” according to Minor. “First thing worth noting, the western corn belt, we had fantastic samples, fantastic conditions. It was a very, very good crop for Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Minnesota in general. So if you’re talking about a big crop, the west is pulling its weight this year in general. The east is interesting this year because it looks fine from the road. And when we got into it, granted, last year was a 217 record yield in Illinois. So we have to always put that into perspective. But it was still a good crop. But our samples in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, 80% of them came back lower than last year. So from the road, looks great. Satellite imagery looks even better.”
Minor added in his comments that “We’re supposed to have some very, very good yields printed in today’s report based on satellite imagery and farmer survey. It’s not really until you get in the field in the eastern corn belt that I found some samples that didn’t quite live up to expectations.” (View their full results webinar here: https://professionalagmarketing.com/market-insights/grains/crop-tour)
At the end of the day, Schau says you can get mad at the numbers but he’d rather find a way to navigate the markets that are trading these numbers. “I mean, my general opinion is, this is going to sound kind of crass from a guy who’s supposed to be a market analyst, I don’t really care what the numbers are. The numbers are what they are, and I can’t change them,” he says.
“There’s going to be a lot of bushels that are going to have to find a home at harvest time, and I don’t want to be a producer that doesn’t have a home for them, if that makes any sense. So if you know you’ve got bushels you can’t store that have got to go to town, you got to free up cash. Now’s the time to be going out trying to find that home for them, negotiate some type of a basis deal. My guess is in most areas, not all, I don’t like painting with a big broad brush, but most areas are going to see some harvest basis struggles and even more weakening when this crop does come off and it starts flowing to town. So the job right now is to figure out what you’re going to do with those, make that plan.”
Watch the full conversations with Tyler Schau and Craig Turner on the Market Talk YouTube channel below: