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Tidbits earlier this year compared U.S. agricultural exports to a thoroughbred horse and said bettors would be upset because the horse stumbled out of the gate in the first quarter. Exports were down 5% in the first quarter compared to a year ago. The second quarter, though, gave bettors renewed hope. Midway through the race exports are still off but have picked up the pace, down just 2% compared to last year. Exports through the first half of the year totaled $85.5 billion against $87.3 billion last year. Still, it’s not an overly impressive pace as U.S. agricultural exports last year slipped 1% compared to 2023. Declining agricultural exports combined with growing imports resulted in a trade deficit of $28.6 billion over the first six months of the year. Figure 1 shows the percentage changes in export values of several U.S. agricultural export commodities for the first half of the year compared to same period last year. A couple Nebraska exports, corn and ethanol, saw growth up 25% and 7% respectively. Increased purchases by South Korea, the European Union, and Japan along with continued healthy purchases by Mexico helped pace corn. Canadian purchases set the pace for ethanol. Other Nebraska exports were down. Soybean exports were down 25%, mostly due to fewer purchases by China, hides were off 13%, animal feeds and oil meal exports were off 10%, and red meats (beef, pork, and lamb) were down 5% with beef exports down 6%. The U.S. Meat Export Federation said beef sales in June were down 18%, the lowest in 17 months. A positive was the volume of bulk commodities exported was up 6%. Shipments of corn (+24%), ethanol (+10%), and wheat (+6%) led the way while soybeans were off 9% and red meats down 4%. |
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FIGURE 1. CHANGES IN VALUES OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS, JAN.-JUNE 2025 VS 2024 |
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Source: Rolling Prairie Economics graphic based on data from USDA Economic Research Service |
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The outlook for U.S. agricultural exports for the remainder of the year is uncertain at best. Only corn exports seem poised to increase. The USDA’s latest supply and demand estimates increased corn exports to 2.87 billion bushels for the 2025 marketing year beginning September 1, a record volume if realized. Soybean exports, though, are forecast to decline. Strained trade relations with China weigh on soybean exports and the country, the world’s largest soybean importer, has yet to purchase any U.S new crop soybeans. President Trump has pleaded with China through social media to purchase more U.S. soybeans. Time will tell whether China will heed the call. High beef prices, reduced production, and trade conflicts also weigh on beef exports. The USDA forecasts export declines for both this year and next. Unfortunately, the forecasts and current trade climate do not portend of an export surge for U.S. agricultural goods. |
