The National Corn Growers Association today released its economic outlook for 2026, outlining six key forces expected to shape corn prices and farm margins in the year ahead. The report highlights growing supply pressures and emphasizes the importance of developing new and expanded markets to support long-term profitability for corn growers.
“As the report shows, U.S. corn production is increasing with sustained high corn acres and productivity gains,” said report author and NCGA Chief Economist Krista Swanson. “Global corn production is at a record and growing. Without a shift in demand, rising domestic and global corn supply adds downward pressure on corn prices for U.S. farmers unless new demand materializes.”
The outlook comes as financial strain remains top of mind for many growers navigating near-record production costs alongside weaker prices. The 2026 forecast cost of production is projected to be only 1% lower than the record $928 per acre seen in 2022. At the same time, the forecasted $4.10 per bushel market-year average corn price for the 2026 crop would be 37% lower than the $6.54 per bushel average received for the 2022 crop, tightening margins across much of the Corn Belt.
While the report outlines several near-term challenges, it also points to opportunities for demand growth, particularly in the longer term. Ethanol remains a key pillar of domestic corn use, and the outlook notes emerging market opportunities beyond traditional on-road fuel use that could help absorb rising supplies, similar to how ethanol growth supported corn demand over the past several decades.
“Amid high production levels, expanding and diversifying demand is essential,” said Swanson. “Decisions made this year—on trade, energy policy, and ethanol expansion—will shape the future profitability and resilience of the U.S. corn industry.”
As part of that strategy, NCGA continues to push for passage of legislation that would allow expanded access to fuels containing 15% ethanol blends nationwide during the summer driving season. The organization is also focused on increasing foreign market access for U.S. corn and corn-based products, while advocating for the renewal of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, which remains a cornerstone for agricultural trade in North America.
The 2026 outlook underscores that while production capacity remains strong, the path forward for corn growers will depend heavily on policy decisions, market development, and the ability to unlock new sources of demand at home and abroad.
