Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins used last week’s USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum to paint a cautiously optimistic picture of the farm economy, even as producers continue to navigate tight margins, soft price forecasts for 2026, and renewed trade uncertainty following the Supreme Court’s decision striking down the president’s tariffs.
Speaking to stakeholders gathered at the forum, Rollins highlighted recent export gains as a bright spot for the sector.
“Ethanol exports were up 11 percent, dairy exports up about 15 percent, and corn exports last year were up almost 29 percent.”
She said those increases helped narrow the agricultural trade deficit by nearly nine billion dollars. Rollins also pointed to easing cost pressures, arguing that producers may finally see some relief on the expense side of the ledger.
“Altogether, when adjusted for inflation, the average cost of production is going down in 2026, the first decline in more than five years.”
While acknowledging ongoing uncertainty in commodity markets and global trade policy, Rollins emphasized legislative wins included in last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill, particularly in a midterm election cycle that historically poses challenges for the president’s party.
“Increased reference prices for the first time in over a decade, crop insurance improvements, enhanced coverage and lower premiums, saving producers an estimated 400 million dollars a year.”
She added that the legislation also included expanded coverage options for new and beginning farmers, a permanent death tax exemption for many producers, and provisions allowing full bonus depreciation and immediate expensing for certain investments. Rollins suggested those updates give agriculture lawmakers a head start as they continue working to finalize the long-delayed farm bill, a process recently slowed again by an East Coast snowstorm.
Beyond legislative efforts, Rollins said USDA is taking administrative steps to strengthen the safety net.
“USDA is also now beginning the process of adding up to 30 million, 30 million acres to our ARC and PLC programs.”
The department is also pressing Congress to approve year-round E15 sales and is working to finalize rules related to the 45Z clean fuel production credit and Renewable Fuel Standard volumes in an effort to bolster feedstock demand. At the same time, Rollins noted USDA has begun accepting applications for bridge payments totaling 11 billion dollars for row crop producers and one billion dollars for specialty crop growers, providing additional short-term financial support as the industry waits for longer-term policy certainty.
